Embedded Files
Part 2, Episode 2, November 16th 2025
Data vs. Intuition: Decision-Making in an Ocean Race
Ahoy!
Yesterday, the Clipper Race started its third leg of the round-the-world race, departing from Cape Town, South Africa, and heading towards Fremantle, Australia. This stage involves 3,500 nautical miles in conditions of strong winds, low temperatures, and downwind sailing. It will be yet another challenge of strategy, tactics, and execution for the teams on each boat, who will need to make numerous decisions throughout the course, using available data and information, combined with experience, intuition, and common sense.
In today's world, where data is so abundant and accessible, leveraged by AI which helps us analyse, find patterns, and make recommendations, how are decisions made in an ocean race?
The Clipper Race is a unique competition where all boats are intentionally identical. They are the same size (70 feet), use the same equipment, have the same set of sails, and they also receive the same daily weather forecast information, including wind and tides, etc. This standardisation is the core of the race, as it eliminates any equipment advantage. Although they have Starlink, radio, and other safety communication devices, they are not allowed to obtain weather forecast information other than what is officially distributed by the Clipper Race organisation.
As a member of the Scotland boat, I completed the first stage of the race, sailing over 7,000 nautical miles across the Atlantic Ocean, departing from England and arriving in Uruguay. We went through diverse conditions: bad weather with 40 knots strong winds and large waves in the Bay of Biscay off the French coast; days of calm, heat, and tropical rain in the Doldrums (Intertropical Convergence Zone); and strong downwind sailing, allowing for speeds up to 20 knots near the South American coast.
The use of data was part of the routine: all boats have a laptop with the maritime navigation software Timezero, where various information related to the weather and the position of competing boats can be analysed. Additionally, nautical charts (maps), logs, and instruments measuring the boat's performance make up a workstation that could look like a stock market brokerage panel.
However, did data define 100% of the strategy and tactics to be adopted? No. They were a fundamental reference, but the strategic and tactical decisions were always assessed through experience and intuition, primarily that of our Skipper Heather Thomas and First Mate Millie Apperley, who regularly discussed and shared the decisions with us, the crew.
Weather forecast data, as the name implies, is a prediction based on complex mathematical models and historical information, and it represents a snapshot of the moment in which those analyses were generated. Furthermore, the ocean is vast, and the forecast always generalises a large area, where variations exist when considering a more precise position.
One must also consider the dynamism of the weather and the condition of the team members, who were sometimes exhausted and needed a rest. The ability to read the environment in real-time—whether by analysing the clouds, observing the formation of waves, or sensing the temperature and humidity of the air—was also a frequently used skill.
In summary, to achieve the best performance in an ocean race like the Clipper Race, success involves using data combined with experience, intuition, and the ability to dynamically read the environment and adjust strategy or tactics.
Does the Same Apply in the Corporate World?
I believe so. The use of data, coupled with the application of AI and its predictive and generative models, has exploded exponentially and already made a competitive difference for leading companies across all industries. However, does this mean the end of the human factor in decision-making? I think not.
The phrase "By the time it can be captured in numbers, it's too late" is frequently attributed to Peter Drucker and reflects the emphasis on intuition. Many crucial issues—such as culture, team morale, or an emerging market shift—need to be perceived, sensed, and decided based on intuition and observation before they become available as measurable data.
As a technology executive, I believe the future lies in combining human intelligence, in all its aspects, with artificial intelligence, together reinventing the world of business and, perhaps, ocean racing too.
May fair winds be with you!
Breno
Share the Journey
If you enjoyed this, please share it with your network, follow me on social media, and consider supporting my fundraising campaign for UNICEF, a Clipper Race Partner.
Report abuse